The first day of running in the F1 Japanese GP race weekend yielded interesting takeaways as McLaren ended the day on top of the standings. It wasn’t all straightforward as well, as drivers did have to make a few adjustments throughout the two sessions as they tried to get used to the new cars around Suzuka.
Overall, though, it was still a straightforward run as teams went through their programs smoothly. We had Oscar Piastri end the day at the top of the timing sheet, followed by the Mercedes pair. Max Verstappen, in his Red Bull, was a fair distance off the top of the timings as the driver just doesn’t have the tools at his disposal to show what he’s capable of.
With that being said, as we get ready for the all-important qualifying session on Saturday, what can we expect? Let’s take a look as we share our predictions for the F1 Japanese GP qualifying.
#5 Reliability issues are going to strike multiple cars
One of the issues that was quite evident on Friday as well was the number of cars being forced to sit out in Free Practice as they suffered from reliability issues. The teams are yet to get on top of these issues, as is evident already, but the gearbox is an area that is critical on a track like Suzuka.
It does appear for now that the gearbox is going to be a limiting factor this weekend, as hydraulic issues continue to be a factor. The F1 Japanese GP qualifying is no different, as we could end up seeing a few drivers being thwarted by these issues as well.
#4 At least one Audi driver makes it to Q3
Audi suffered a shock when it was announced that Jonathan Wheatley was leaving the team with immediate effect. While that was the case, and we’ve seen a few questions raised about the team, the car has hit the ground running in Suzuka.
It does appear that the Audi power unit is capable of handling the power unit demands of the F1 Japanese GP, and that is where it is surging compared to the other midfield contenders. We’re backing at least one of the two Audi drivers to make it to Q3.
#3 McLaren is the dark horse
McLaren undeniably showed impressive pace during FP1 and FP2. There’s, however, a caveat here, and it does come down to the power unit modes that the team was using.
The car ran on higher modes compared to the rivals, it seems, and that could potentially explain where the car was compared to them. With that being said, there’s also the element of McLaren learning more and more about both the power unit and the chassis, and then both of them yielding a more efficient package.
Overall, McLaren is going to be a dark horse in the F1 Japanese GP qualifying and could potentially be a top 5 or even a top 3 contender.
#2 Neither Red Bull driver in the top 5
It does appear that what we saw in the pre-season tests was a bit of a false dawn, as the reality is starting to strike Red Bull now. The car is just not your typical frontrunner as it is significantly hampered both on the power unit and the chassis side of things.
Max Verstappen will be battling the midfielders by the looks of it in the F1 Japanese GP qualifying, as the pace is just not there.
#1 Kimi Antonelli secures pole position for the F1 Japanese GP
Another wildcard prediction here as we’re picking Kimi Antonelli to beat George Russell and secure pole position for the F1 Japanese GP. The young Italian has the momentum on his side, and if the low fuel runs showed something, then it was the fact that the youngster can hang with his teammate over a lap.
For the 2026 F1 Japanese GP qualifying, we’re backing young Kimi to secure a second consecutive pole position.
Edited by Charanjot Singh Kohli
