It has been more than a decade since there was such a small difference between college basketball’s best two teams as Selection Sunday beckons.
Look at the metrics. Look at the gambling futures. Look at the evidence on our TV screens. It’s nearly impossible to say whether the Duke Blue Devils or the Michigan Wolverines are the favorite to win it all.
If you go by predictive metrics like KenPom, Duke ranks as roughly a half-point favorite over Michigan. If you go by results-based metrics like Wins Above Bubble, Michigan is a smidge ahead of Duke. If you go by online sportsbooks like Caesars, Duke is listed at +325 to cut down the nets on April 6 in Indianapolis at +325 — but Michigan sits at +325, too.
If you prefer to go by something absurd like on-court results, Duke edged Michigan 68-63 in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 21 in a game where neither team led by more than eight.
In essence, if this year’s tournament turns into nothing more than Duke and Michigan on an inexorable collision course from opposite sides of the bracket (to be unveiled at 6 p.m. ET Sunday), then we’re destined for an amazing three weeks.
The only way it might be greater is if we get a replay of the last NCAA Tournament with its top two teams virtually indistinguishable — because that was the last time a wholly unexpected squad stormed to the NCAA title.
That was way back in 2014, when NCAA Tournament committee members were still such troglodytes when it came to metrics that Louisville entered the tournament ranked as KenPom’s No. 1 overall team — yet received a No. 4 seed.
When the dust settled in Arlington, Texas, 18th-ranked and No. 7 seeded Connecticut claimed the championship while eighth-seeded Kentucky also made the Final Four. Some would argue that’s way more fun than having only No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.
What else will happen on Selection Sunday?
What else can be learned from the 2014 NCAA Tournament that might be applicable as we try to predict what will happen on Selection Sunday? Well, that was the year Wichita State raced through the regular season and the Missouri Valley Conference tournament at 34-0 and was rewarded with a No. 1 seed.
Now, the Shockers played a significantly tougher schedule than the 2025-26 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks — Tennessee, Alabama (on the road), BYU, Saint Louis and Tulsa were among their non-conference conquests — and the MVC was tougher than the current-day MAC.
But for all those who believe the NCAA Tournament committee shouldn’t bow at the feet of an undefeated mid-major, Wichita State’s season ended in the second round when John Calipari’s Kentucky squad rallied for a 78-76 win.
Speaking of the Miami RedHawks, their perfect season went poof Thursday in the MAC quarterfinals against a Massachusetts squad that finished with a 17-16 record. After that flaccid finish, which followed multiple 2-point escapes, there will be howling no matter how the committee treats the 31-1 RedHawks.
Do they deserve the worst at-large seed, which is usually a 12? Does the committee force them into the First Four with an 11 seed, which would inadvertently punish their opponent because Miami’s Millett Hall is just 40.4 miles from University of Dayton Arena?
Or does the committee decide Miami doesn’t deserve a bid at all because it played such a putrid schedule? According to the NET rankings, the RedHawks played zero Quad 1 games and went 2-0 versus Quad 2 foes. Auburn, widely expected to fall short of the 68-team tournament field, went 4-13 versus Quad 1s and 3-2 vs. Quad 2s. Indiana, in a similar spot, went 3-10 versus Quad 1s and 3-4 against Quad 2s.
The prediction here? Miami (Ohio) receives a No. 10 seed — and faces seventh-seeded Miami (Fla.) in the first round.
Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida receive the No. 1 seeds. Iowa State, UConn, Houston and Michigan State get the No. 2 seeds. Santa Clara claims an at-large berth and none of the power-conference bubble teams get in.
