The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase is set to begin next Sunday at Darlington Raceway, with Denny Hamlin entering as the No. 1 seed. He holds a 25-point advantage over Ryan Blaney after finishing the 26-race regular season at the top of the standings. However, Jamie McMurray believes the Team Penske driver is the biggest threat to Hamlin’s championship hopes.
The Chase field was finalized at Daytona International Speedway last weekend, with Ryan Preece winning the Coke Zero Sugar 400 to take the 16th and final spot. Hamlin had already secured the No. 1 seed before Daytona, giving him the maximum 2,100 points for the start of the 10-race postseason.
Hamlin enters the Chase after one of the strongest regular seasons in the field. The No. 11 Toyota driver recorded four wins and 17 top-10 finishes while leading the regular-season standings. According to NASCAR Insights, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver ranks first among the 16 Chase drivers in season-long speed and is top five in passing, defense, restarts, and pit stops.
McMurray believes Hamlin’s season goes beyond those numbers. Speaking on the Inside the Race podcast, he said (34:58 onwards):
“Of all the drivers you’re going to put up here, I don’t need to see any of that. I just think Denny is without a doubt the favorite. Clearly should have won the championship last year if you don’t get a caution late in the race at Phoenix, and he just has it all going for him right now.”
“It’s been that way for the last two or three years. I think that Toyota has a distinct advantage right now throughout the series, and I don’t see that changing. When I look at all the races that are in the Chase, I just don’t see a weakness for Denny Hamlin,” he added.
Ryan Blaney finished the regular season 89 points behind Denny Hamlin, but the Chase reset brought the gap down to just 25. Hamlin starts with 2,100 points, while Blaney begins with 2,075. That is why McMurray sees Blaney as the biggest danger to Hamlin.
“Most dangerous guy for Denny Hamlin is Ryan Blaney. There’s no doubt… Blaney every single week seems to be able to find really good speed… That’s the one guy, though, if I’m Denny Hamlin, that I’m the most concerned with.”
Ryan Blaney ranks second in season-long speed behind Denny Hamlin and sixth in defense. His restart ranking is ninth, while his pit crew has been a major weakness for the No. 12 team. The crew has affected Blaney’s results for most of the season, but that issue has now been addressed before the Chase. Team Penske swapped the pit crews assigned to Blaney and Austin Cindric.
McMurray and co-host Steve Letarte also agreed that the ‘title will go through Joe Gibbs Racing‘, as four of the top six seeds drive JGR Toyotas: Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, and Christopher Bell.
Denny Hamlin refuses to get caught up in championship expectations
Denny Hamlin has spent more than eight weeks at the top of the Cup Series standings after taking the points lead following the Sonoma Raceway race. His sustained run at the top came after four victories in a five-race stretch in the summer, making him one of the leading favorites entering the Chase.
However, Hamlin is refusing to get caught up in those expectations. Speaking on Actions Detrimental, he explained (52:34 onwards):
“You realize over time that… nothing is given. This sport is week to week to week. And favorites matter, but they do not matter. In the sense that if I don’t go out there this week and prepare like I need to, do the work I need to do and execute at the level that I need to execute, none of that other stuff matters.”
Denny Hamlin understands his regular-season results will not automatically translate into success over the next 10 races.
“People put you as a favorite… because of the body of work that you’ve shown them over time. Now, in my mind, I’ve got to take that body of work and make it just a little bit better. I’ve got to be a little bit better. I need to be the best that I can at all these racetracks.”
The first challenge for Hamlin comes at Darlington Raceway on September 6, when the Cook Out Southern 500 kicks off the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase.
Edited by Anurup Chakraborty
