Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.
Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or five total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.
How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.
Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.
Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan. Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.
Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Kai Kamaka III (+122)
Model Odds: -148
Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+153)
When Bruce Buffer or Joe Martinez starts reading a split decision, regardless of the opening odds, what mental chances do you assign each fighter getting the nod?
Most times, it’s around 50-50. Who knows what the judges saw, right?
Well, Andre “Touchy” Fili has just one win that wasn’t a split decision since July of 2019. That was 14 appearances ago, and the lone exception came against Lucas Almeida, who flamed out of the UFC with a 2-4 record.
On just the surface of “a quality opponent for Fili”, the odds shouldn’t anecdotally feel better than 50% because that’s the margin he’s fought featherweights to since beyond the COVID break. Sure, he got his hand raised against good ones like Christian Rodriguez, Cub Swanson, and Bill Algeo, but they were razor-close fights.
Kai Kamaka III is another good featherweight. I’m not sure if he’ll get that moniker from most because of his 2-3-1 UFC record, but I’m actually basing it on a long, successful career with PFL and Bellator that lasted 10 fights before returning.
“Da Fightin’ Hawaiian” went to a split decision with England’s Brendan Loughnane, the former multi-time PFL champion who absolutely peaked as a top-15 guy in the division across the world.
It wasn’t that surprising to me because Kamaka III’s analytics have always outshined his record. He has a tendency to just be engulfed in these high-volume wars, but his striking accuracy (59%) and defense (55%) are beyond solid for the division’s standards. He has added 1.45 takedowns with better efficiency (53%) on the attempts than Fili (46%), who is also well-known for that.
If there’s a hole for Kamaka, it’s a 55% takedown defense, but I welcome a 36-year-old Fili wrestling hard and using his gas tank at elevation. Kamaka trains in Vegas with Xtreme Couture; Fili gets imported from Team Alpha Male in Sacramento.
He’s been the full distance in 19 of 27 career bouts, which is why now is the time to buy after stud prospect Luke Riley just cracked his chin. Although, I have to say, I don’t even think it’s an argument that this beatdown that Fili suffered against Vinicius Oliveira in June was worse in terms of short-term attrition:
